The Champions League reaches a decisive stage where probabilities carry weight, but history can be just as influential. Opta’s supercomputer has analyzed the quarter-final second legs, identifying clear favorites while placing others close to elimination. Still, certain ties go beyond numbers and remain difficult to predict.

The clash in Munich between Bayern and Real Madrid highlights this contrast between statistics and competitive pedigree. The German side holds the advantage after a 2-1 win in the first leg, with Opta’s model assigning them an 83.68% chance of progressing. Real Madrid, meanwhile, are given just a 16.32% probability. Despite this, their history in the competition continues to challenge such projections.

Vincent Kompany’s team are expected to finish the job at the Allianz Arena. Opta’s simulations give Bayern a 56.7% chance of winning the match, while a 20.3% probability of a draw would also be enough to secure qualification for a semi-final against either PSG or Liverpool. Real Madrid, on the other hand, register a 23.0% chance of victory. To progress directly, they would need to win by more than one goal, otherwise the tie could be decided in extra time or penalties.

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